Friday, April 16, 2010

Why economics is broken

I don't hate economics (which would suck if I did since it's, y'know, my career) in it's uncorrupted form I love it. It's like a direly ill friend, I can't just walk away. I want to save and it purify it from the people, who in their desire to understand it better or "harness its power" or just generally look like scholarly smarter-than-you people, have managed to convolute and obfuscate it to the point that no one agrees how anything works anymore. Now it's all about "reputations" and "science" rather than what it was at its core - the study of choice. It's a philosophy people! I'm not saying math has no place, it is very useful for determining how one thing affects another thing (among lots of other things). It's just they keep sticking math into everything where it doesn't belong like some sort of crazy math-panacea (like the people who think duct tape can fix EVERYTHING). I really do feel bad for all the math nerds a few decades ago who couldn't find jobs in their field, I just wish they would have stayed away from economics because they broke it and now it doesn't work right anymore.

These "models" we are continually creating are no more representative of reality than runway models are representative of the female stock in any given wal-mart. When basic assumptions are flawed and not connected to the real world, we can't expect any findings based on the model to actually apply to reality either. Economics can make models that are snapshots, they show a still image of how something works at that given second. Which would be great if nothing ever changed but life isn't static - it is dynamic. Everything changes constantly, and there are way too many forces at work to ever come back to some arbitrary-chosen equilibrium. Far too many models are so simplified that they leave out anything that can't be specifically quantified, which in the unfortunate area I've fallen into means that most of the things that have an effect are ignored in favor of effects that are negligible but measurable.

Why are economists so obsessed with equilibrium? Because it's easier to work with (or they all have OCD, with which I can totally sympathize). In that respect it follows a pattern set by life in general, that of balance (go Taoism!), and maybe that's what I love most about economics. A sine wave is a perfect "model" for life. Everything in life is in a dynamic state of being acted on by opposite forces - happy/sad, good/bad etc. Life is a rollercoaster, right, and in the long run it averages out (aka equilibrium). Too many economists seem to have forgotten that; equilibrium has become the destination, not the ride.
Remember what Keynes said, "in the long run, we're all dead."

BONUS QUOTE: To support my point that math is useful but tends hyper-focus so much on one tiny piece of a problem that it ends up missing the overall point, I relay what my younger son said to his older brother who would not shut up about various Pokemon stats when all I wanted to do was make a groudon sing "Reflections" and a rayquaza sing "Bang A Gong" - "SHUT UP! NOBODY CARES ABOUT YOUR SCIENCE!"

Why is it so hard to stay focu-hey! sparkles!

I desperately need to get work on the (several) papers I have due soon. I don't understand why I can't just do it. Yesterday I had a decent excuse after playing "Who wants a concussion?" with the shower and losing but today I should be able to just typety-type and whip up some economic lit-review gold. Yet I stare at it. I think it's because of the strong aversion I have to doing anything that I have to do. Maybe it's why I picked economics instead of history for a MA. Having to write about history would just ruin it.

On a vaguely related note, how cool would it be if you could transfer allergies to things you didn't like in the first place; like how I can't (but still do) eat tomatoes. What if I could just switch it to broccoli instead? Bam - instant better excuse to avoid something I hate, hello spaghetti-os...

Wednesday, April 14, 2010

Erudite Hick is Erudite

Long awaited, heavily anticipated, nonsensical ravings of me are returning to the internets. I know I have done this before, I build up a small following and then I stop updating and lose the log-in information but this time is different! I have much greater responsibilities to shirk (and ADD medicine, and a more stable email address).

Why write about things I have to write when I could write about the random fun crap that's cluttering up my brain? Really, who wants to read about math-y, ol' economics when they can read about underpants gnomes and liquor-inspired adventures or whatever? There is no "Journal of Exciting Adventures and Underpants Gnomes." PLUS scholarly journals usually frown on profanity, which is unfortunate because economics would be a lot cooler with more profanity (and probably make a lot more sense).
Example-"we have seen a small quarterly increase in domestic production but it is anticipated that unemployment rates will probably remain stable for several more quarters while interest rates are expected to..." BLA BLA BLA (TLDL)*
People hear that and say "OMFG?!?! that's so many words and they all sound BAD! Everybody PANIC!!!!!!"
*but* Translated into not-boring: "Shit was fucked, but it's not as fucked as it was, give it a little bit and it should stop sucking completely"
Then people would say "Yay, things are getting better, let's celebrate with malt liquor!"
*sigh* when I am Empress-of-all-that-doesn't-suck....but that is a post for another day.


*TLDL similar to TLDR - too long, didn't read also the newly invented TLGDSTAT&G - too long, got distracted, started thinking about triangles and goats